How to Determine When Pandemic Reaches Its End

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A discarded mask. Will the pandemic ever end?

While there have been some positive signs in the fight against COVID-19 lately, such as the growing number of fully vaccinated residents, determining when the pandemic will be “over” is not a simple task, writes David Murrell for the Philadelphia Magazine.

According to the health experts, as much as it might seem that the end of the pandemic is near, we are still nowhere near it.

“These things don’t necessarily end cleanly,” said Penn epidemiology professor Michael Levy. “It’s not super-helpful to ever claim victory over a pathogen.”

Part of the problem is that there are no set benchmarks on what would constitute the end of the pandemic. Some possible targets include the often-cited immunity threshold of 70 or 80 percent of the population and achieving a consistently low number of new daily cases.

Neither seems to be near, as the demand for vaccines is already falling and the number of new cases continues to grow.

Experts believe that the virus will never go away, but that we will reach a middle ground between a pandemic and complete extermination – it is just not yet known what and when this will be.

Read more about how to tell when the pandemic is over in the Philadelphia Magazine.

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