Neumann University Student Predicts Karate Matches at Sports Analytics Conference

By David Bjorkgren

Published: 5:20 am EST November 30, 2020Published: November 30, 2020Updated: 4:58 pm EST November 25, 2020

Neumann University Mathematics major Olivia DiDonato of Broomall. Image via Neumann University.

Olivia DiDonato, a Neumann University mathematics major who is a black belt in karate, combined her two interests to create a predictive model for karate matches and presented her research at the Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting on Nov. 21.

The conference, which was hosted by Central College in Iowa, promotes faculty, graduate, and undergraduate research in sports analytics. DiDonato’s presentation was one of just 20 accepted by the national conference.

Entitled “Predicting the Outcome of Shotokan Karate Matches,” the DiDonato research proposes a predictive model that uses various skills performed by the competitors.

The Broomall resident collected data on a large set of karate skills from 30 matches and used stepwise logistic regression (a method of building a model by adding or removing predictor variables) to determine the subset of these variables that best predicted the matches’ outcomes.

Her final model predicted match outcomes with nearly 92 percent accuracy, using only the skills of punches and counterattacks.

DiDonato conducted her research during the summer after she qualified for a $5,000 Clare Boothe Luce Undergraduate Research Scholar Award to investigate how mathematics might identify martial arts skill.

The grant stipulated that DiDonato devote 150 hours over the summer to research, collect data and write the findings in a paper on a topic of her choice.

Shotokan is a traditional form of karate. It originated in Okinawa, a small island south of Japan, and became popular in the 1950s.

As a traditional, weaponless martial art, Shotokan is founded on basic techniques of punching, striking, kicking and blocking and emphasizes improvements in character and mental discipline as well as physical skill. It stresses lifelong training for a healthy mind and body.